Sunday, 22 December 2024
Moody's: Global CoCo issuance in 2016 likely to be 30% less than 2015
London - Global issuance by Moody's-rated banks of contingent capital securities (CoCos) in 2016 is likely to total about $75 billion, says Moody's Investors Service in a report published today. This is well below the $105 billion recorded in 2015 and just under a half of 2014's peak of $175 billion.
Moody's Quarterly CoCo Monitor, titled, "Issuance Is Gradually Recovering After Market Shutdown in February" is available on www.moodys.com.
Globally, between January and mid-April 2016, the volume of new CoCo issuance fell by 50% to $23.7 billion from $47.4 billion over the same period in 2015. Chinese banks continue to drive the quarterly CoCo issuance, accounting for 26% of issuance in Q1, although it is worth noting that these are all T2 CoCos.
"The issuance slump in CoCos during 2016 globally follows a temporary market shutdown in Europe and the absence of any AT1 issuance in Asia so far. Financial market volatility overall has affected issuance, driven by concerns surrounding the Chinese economy, weak commodity prices and, in Europe, concerns around the risk of coupon suspension," says Simon Ainsworth, a Senior Vice President at Moody's.
Earlier this year, a number of banks postponed or abandoned their AT1 CoCo issuance plans as fears grew about the point at which a breach of capital requirements by European banks, might trigger a suspension of their coupon payments. However, after the announcement that the European Commission is working on proposals to relax the mandatory consequences of a bank breaching its capital buffers, a number of European banks resumed issuance, including UBS Group (unrated, UBS AG: A1 Stable), Rabobank (Aa2 Stable) and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (Baa1 stable).
Moody's notes that Turkish banks are increasingly issuing Basel III-compliant Tier 2 CoCos to help them maintain solid capital buffers. These hybrid instruments, which allow the write-down of both interest and principal in insolvency, are less expensive to issue than Tier 1 capital at a time when banks must meet increasing capital requirements. Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi and Alternatifbank have both been able to place Tier 2 CoCos this year.
"The trend for Tier 2 bond issuance in Turkey is also being fuelled by a faster phase-out of Basel II compliant Tier 2 bonds than initially expected, with the Turkish regulator mandating that 20% must be phased out each year over the next five years," explains Ainsworth.
Moody's "Quarterly CoCo Monitor" analyses trends in contingent capital securities issued by Moody's-rated banks. The monitor's database covers instrument features for the more than 450 securities that we have tracked since December 2009. Since 2009 global issuance of contingent capital securities from Moody's-rated banks stands at $395 billion as of mid-April 2016.
Re-disseminated by The Asian Banker
